Crypto Prices Will ‘Nuke’ If FOMC announces 100 bps Rate hike

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Two crypto experts shared their crypto price predictions heading into the FOMC meeting on Wednesday at 2 pm ET and Jerome Powell’s speech.

FOMC Crypto Price Predictions

With crypto prices falling in the past 24 hours – Bitcoin and Ethereum are down 3 to 4% – many traders are derisking, waiting on the sidelines, and searching for crypto expert analysis online:

Crypto Chase

Crypto Chase (@Crypto_Chase, formerly @Chase_NL) has approximately 100,000 followers across Twitter and YouTube and correctly sold BTC at over $56k and ETH above $4k.

His FOMC prediction is for crypto prices to crash in a ‘Giga nuke’ if a 100 bps rate hike is the outcome – which the market predicts has a 16% probability of happening.

If a 75 basis points hike is announced, he expects liquidity to be run in both directions – choppy price action and the usual ‘Darth Maul candle’ to stop out longs and shorts – before the long-term crypto price move is decided by Fed chair Powell’s comments.

Trading Tank

Trading Tank (@TheTradingTank) posted longer crypto prices forecast for his 7,700 followers across an eight-tweet thread.

His analysis was that since core CPI and PPI data ‘came in hot’ and inflation was higher than expected, the stock and crypto markets may have sold off as a reaction to price in a 75 bps rate hike.

Like Chase Crypto, he expects a further sell-off if a 100 bps hike is announced, potentially to test the lows (for the Bitcoin price, the $17,600 level hit in June) or crash further.

‘100bps would most likely create a sell-off and we could expect risk assets to test recent lows or maybe even break through. The actual economic effect of rate hikes does not fully materialize until 6+ months down the road, but investors behave as if they are immediate.’

However, he also notes a 75 bps hike could improve sentiment and lead to a mid-term crypto price rally – feeling like a ‘victory lap’ if it is already priced in.

Following the FOMC meeting, next week will see the release of US GDP data and PCE inflation data which Trading Tank argues is ‘just as important.

Bitcoin price chart over the past month pre FOMC meeting – daily timeframe

Earlier this week, CryptoNews reported on a third crypto analyst’s price prediction, Ted Talks Macro. He also predicted that the markets have priced at a 100 bps rate and risk assets like Bitcoin will rally if 75 bps is announced.

FOMC Meeting Schedule

The next FOMC meeting following Wednesday is scheduled for November 1st – 2nd.

Find the full FOMC meeting calendar at federalreserve.org.

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About Nitish shaw 165 Articles
An aspiring novelist and a random blogger, Nitish is also a porky-mouthed banter specialist when it comes to football (soccer), films, TV Series, History and socio-economic issues. He travels, indulges in music and plays outdoor sports to get his creative juices flowing. “There’s the scarlet thread of murder running through the colorless skein of life, and our duty is to unravel it, and isolate it, and expose every inch of it.”- Quote this, and you will be his favorite person for at least as long as the two of you can hold up the conversation.